The Neverending Thread for Political Shit

[beantownbubba]

I must confess that I had no idea, none, that there is such a thing as Non Disclosure Agreements that businesses make elected public officials sign (Trump's laughable attempt to get NDA's from executive branch employees is different). And I have to say I cannot believe these exist, that politicians sign them and that their constituents let them get away with it. This is awful public policy and high on the list of "worst practices" for governments. I am really shocked. I think my jaw is permanently stuck in dropped position.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/29/opin ... 029039208a

[beantownbubba]

No need to speak ill of the dead, Donald Rumsfeld's record speaks for itself. But I wonder whether, instead of 72 virgins, Christian heaven means finally learning about the unknown unknowns.

[Mr. B]

I must confess that I had no idea, none, that there is such a thing as Non Disclosure Agreements that businesses make elected public officials sign (Trump's laughable attempt to get NDA's from executive branch employees is different). And I have to say I cannot believe these exist, that politicians sign them and that their constituents let them get away with it. This is awful public policy and high on the list of "worst practices" for governments. I am really shocked. I think my jaw is permanently stuck in dropped position.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/29/opin ... 029039208a

This this can happen is batshit crazy. And apparently two members of the Fort Wayne city counsel voted to give multi-million tax breaks to a company without even knowing which company it was? Wow.

[Flea]

No need to speak ill of the dead, Donald Rumsfeld's record speaks for itself. But I wonder whether, instead of 72 virgins, Christian heaven means finally learning about the unknown unknowns.

Then I will. He's felching Satan's fiery cock-lava from Rush Limbaugh's gaping asshole fissures.

[John A Arkansawyer]

No need to speak ill of the dead, Donald Rumsfeld's record speaks for itself. But I wonder whether, instead of 72 virgins, Christian heaven means finally learning about the unknown unknowns.

Then I will. He's felching Satan's fiery cock-lava from Rush Limbaugh's gaping asshole fissures.

So heaven. Interesting.

[John A Arkansawyer]

This was a real shitshow:

How Twitter can ruin a life
Isabel Fall’s sci-fi story “I Sexually Identify as an Attack Helicopter” drew the ire of the internet. This is what happened next.

The Heart of the Matter:

In any internet maelstrom that gets held up as a microcosm of the Way We Live Today, one simple factor often gets washed away: These things happened to someone.

[beantownbubba]

Seems like there are things most of us can learn from right here and some good practices resulting from that knowledge that everyone could adopt to some extent, all upside, no downside.

https://www.vox.com/22559293/food-waste ... est-before

[Cole Younger]

Wooooooooooo. When do we pass around the snakes? This thread needs to renamed The Double Wide Pentacostal Tabernacle of the Serpent’s Tooth and the Living Lord with the fundamentalism up in here.

[John A Arkansawyer]

Speaking of which:

I started a small rebellion, never thinking I'd end up hellbound.
Well, the sole reason was I just got tired of God doggin' me around.

[John A Arkansawyer]

Here's something good and constructive done by people on the right:

Right-Wing Group Exposes Colleagues Funded by Big Tech
A family-values organization has put together a browser extension that identifies Twitter users who have taken tech money.

What’s most notable here is how this rather stolid conservative group has been activated into the fight against Big Tech, and seems open to standing with progressives on the issue if it will help reach their goals. “I do think our differences on cultural issues are stark differences,” Schweppe said. “But there’s a lot of room on economic issues as Republicans become more populist.”

[beantownbubba]

The WSJ reports that the 23.4% increase in home prices from a year ago indicates "strong demand." Talk about understatement!

This is obviously unsustainable (can you say "bubble"?) but it represents yet another way in which those of us who are older are screwing the younger generations and consigning them to a lifetime of debt (whether they actually do buy or are forced to continue renting when they'd prefer to buy). This is just insane and a terrible thing for all of us.

[Zip City]

The WSJ reports that the 23.4% increase in home prices from a year ago indicates "strong demand." Talk about understatement!

This is obviously unsustainable (can you say "bubble"?) but it represents yet another way in which those of us who are older are screwing the younger generations and consigning them to a lifetime of debt (whether they actually do buy or are forced to continue renting when they'd prefer to buy). This is just insane and a terrible thing for all of us.

There are some that say this bubble is about to burst when the mortgage forgiveness programs are lifted and all of those payments come due

[Cole Younger]

The WSJ reports that the 23.4% increase in home prices from a year ago indicates "strong demand." Talk about understatement!

This is obviously unsustainable (can you say "bubble"?) but it represents yet another way in which those of us who are older are screwing the younger generations and consigning them to a lifetime of debt (whether they actually do buy or are forced to continue renting when they'd prefer to buy). This is just insane and a terrible thing for all of us.

I surely agree. I’m glad I’m not trying to buy a house right now. And when this bubble pops there will be all sorts of things for sale at bargain bin prices. I just might be in a position to buy a place in the mountains when that happens. That’s sort of a boobie prize though considering what it will mean in terms of the economy.

[Mundane Mayhem]

My house is due to the hit the market a week from today, and shortly thereafter we’ll be facing the prospect of knowingly buying into an overheated housing market. The equity carrying forward and the historically low interest rates make it somewhat less daunting, but it’s still a strange circumstance. We’ve talked about trying to wait it out, but by the time the market cools interest rates will probably tick back up and it’ll just be robbing Peter to pay Paul. Plus, I need a place to live and finding a rental with two dogs sounds just miserable.

Quasi-related, this is the best piece of writing I read during all the meme stock craziness a while back, and one quote in particular has stuck with me.

Talking and writing about this stuff has the effect of making me feel slightly drunk, or feverish. It makes me want to climb onto the roof and scream some things that are real and true. I do not want to spend my house! I would prefer to live in it. Zillow’s estimation of the fair market value of my house could go all the way down to zero and I guess that would be curtains for my home equity, but it would not change my relationship to my home, which is that it is where I live with my family. The “real property value” of my house, to me and my family, is one Home Unit. It is very important to us.

[beantownbubba]

My house is due to the hit the market a week from today, and shortly thereafter we’ll be facing the prospect of knowingly buying into an overheated housing market. The equity carrying forward and the historically low interest rates make it somewhat less daunting, but it’s still a strange circumstance. We’ve talked about trying to wait it out, but by the time the market cools interest rates will probably tick back up and it’ll just be robbing Peter to pay Paul. Plus, I need a place to live and finding a rental with two dogs sounds just miserable.

Quasi-related, this is the best piece of writing I read during all the meme stock craziness a while back, and one quote in particular has stuck with me.

Talking and writing about this stuff has the effect of making me feel slightly drunk, or feverish. It makes me want to climb onto the roof and scream some things that are real and true. I do not want to spend my house! I would prefer to live in it. Zillow’s estimation of the fair market value of my house could go all the way down to zero and I guess that would be curtains for my home equity, but it would not change my relationship to my home, which is that it is where I live with my family. The “real property value” of my house, to me and my family, is one Home Unit. It is very important to us.

My son & daughter in law are moving for new jobs. They currently rent and want to buy. They are going through all the calculations and anxiety you describe. It sucks. I would prefer that they wait to buy but almost all the advice they're getting is to buy now. Pluses and minuses, risks and rewards either way but it is a fraught situation.

That's a useful quote but my first reaction was to compare/contrast it to the opposite. The home as financial asset thing is a relatively new phenomenon. It surely didn't exist as recently as my grandparents' era and I'm pretty sure it didn't even exist when my parents were homeowners. As we should have all learned by now, when assets get "financialized" bad things tend to happen. This is no different. My personal view is that demographics just don't support long term price hikes (baby boomers move out, who's moving in?) and those who are depending on home equity in whole or in part for major life choices like retirement (including me) are at high risk.

I was going to say that I could talk about the ins and outs of the real estate market at great length but that's what everybody's doing. And when the housing market (or any asset based market) becomes not only cocktail party talk but virtually the sole subject (other than covid) when people gather, that is a real sign that bad things are about to happen so I'll shut up now.

[Clams]

I'm not so sure we're in a housing "bubble." This isn't like 15 years ago when the market was artificially inflated by mortgage companies who made it too easy for buyers to get loans. There's nothing artificial about the current market - this time it's just good ole fashioned supply and demand, one of which is really high and the other really low. In other words, the current real estate market isn't gonna just bottom out. It might level off if mortgage rates start to rise, but I don't think it will come crashing down.

[beantownbubba]

I'm not so sure we're in a housing "bubble." This isn't like 15 years ago when the market was artificially inflated by mortgage companies who made it too easy for buyers to get loans. There's nothing artificial about the current market - this time it's all about supply and demand, one of which is really high and the other really low. In other words, the current real estate market isn't gonna bottom out. It might level off if mortgage rates start to rise, but I don't think it will come crashing down either.

We will all find out together after millions of people and the people who head institutions make their decisions about the market. The beauty and terror of capitalism.

Out of my lane but some might argue (have argued) that current low interest rates are artificial. Not the same as the mortgage companies whipping up a frenzy of inappropriate buyers, but still artificial.

[tinnitus photography]

I'm not so sure we're in a housing "bubble." This isn't like 15 years ago when the market was artificially inflated by mortgage companies who made it too easy for buyers to get loans. There's nothing artificial about the current market - this time it's just good ole fashioned supply and demand, one of which is really high and the other really low. In other words, the current real estate market isn't gonna just bottom out. It might level off if mortgage rates start to rise, but I don't think it will come crashing down.

i hope you are right but i do agree with you. i don't see a crash in the future like what happened w/ the loan fiasco.


(that said, i close on a property in less than 3 weeks.)

[Mundane Mayhem]

My house is due to the hit the market a week from today, and shortly thereafter we’ll be facing the prospect of knowingly buying into an overheated housing market. The equity carrying forward and the historically low interest rates make it somewhat less daunting, but it’s still a strange circumstance. We’ve talked about trying to wait it out, but by the time the market cools interest rates will probably tick back up and it’ll just be robbing Peter to pay Paul. Plus, I need a place to live and finding a rental with two dogs sounds just miserable.

Quasi-related, this is the best piece of writing I read during all the meme stock craziness a while back, and one quote in particular has stuck with me.

Talking and writing about this stuff has the effect of making me feel slightly drunk, or feverish. It makes me want to climb onto the roof and scream some things that are real and true. I do not want to spend my house! I would prefer to live in it. Zillow’s estimation of the fair market value of my house could go all the way down to zero and I guess that would be curtains for my home equity, but it would not change my relationship to my home, which is that it is where I live with my family. The “real property value” of my house, to me and my family, is one Home Unit. It is very important to us.

My son & daughter in law are moving for new jobs. They currently rent and want to buy. They are going through all the calculations and anxiety you describe. It sucks. I would prefer that they wait to buy but almost all the advice they're getting is to buy now. Pluses and minuses, risks and rewards either way but it is a fraught situation.

That's a useful quote but my first reaction was to compare/contrast it to the opposite. The home as financial asset thing is a relatively new phenomenon. It surely didn't exist as recently as my grandparents' era and I'm pretty sure it didn't even exist when my parents were homeowners. As we should have all learned by now, when assets get "financialized" bad things tend to happen. This is no different. My personal view is that demographics just don't support long term price hikes (baby boomers move out, who's moving in?) and those who are depending on home equity in whole or in part for major life choices like retirement (including me) are at high risk.

I was going to say that I could talk about the ins and outs of the real estate market at great length but that's what everybody's doing. And when the housing market (or any asset based market) becomes not only cocktail party talk but virtually the sole subject (other than covid) when people gather, that is a real sign that bad things are about to happen so I'll shut up now.

This touches on so many fundamental questions that we will need satisfactory answers to in order to avoid mass immiseration (and, more apocalyptically, social upheaval) in the near future.

The idea that people's homes represent a substantial portion of their financial safety net is, as you point out, a relatively recent phenomenon, and of course is part of the broader trend of devolution that ultimately tells each of us, in so many ways every day, "you're on your own." Home ownership, and land ownership/wealth more generally, is just one of the many social structures that is characterized by a strong, pervasive, and intentional racial disparity. Instead of talking about why, let's ban "Critical Race Theory." That solves it.

Many people retiring today have at least some sort of pension from a time when such things existed. One of the dirty little secrets of the financial/retirement industry is that we haven't yet seen a generation retire on 401ks and IRAs. But that time is rapidly approaching. We'll see how it goes. If people's home equity serves as the safety valve, that still doesn't answer the question of where those folks are going to live when they have to tap into that equity (reverse mortgages notwithstanding, I suppose). Funnel the accumulated wealth to the financial institutions/landlord class, rather than to your heirs.

My generation (I graduated college during the financial crisis in 2009) was saddled with massive student debt on the promise that it would be worth it, only to see further credential creep (i.e., Master's is the new Bachelor's) that encourages people to take on even more debt--and graduate student debt comes with fewer protections than even the scanty few afforded to undergrads. And then it's a source of constant bewilderment as to why people aren't able to buy houses, are choosing not to have kids, etc. "Well, well, well, if it isn't the consequences of my actions." Or of societal choices, as the case may be. Who's gonna pay Social Security in the future?

When I bought my house in 2015, I remember getting some good advice that seems a little quaint in retrospect. "Every mortgage will probably be underwater at some point." Mine certainly hasn't been. Six years later, I'm looking at being able to put $200K+ in my pocket/toward my next house based on absolutely nothing I did right or wrong: I just happened to have the stability and financial wherewithal to buy a home at the "right time" in a desirable neighborhood. Great for me, but extraordinarily shitty for people who haven't yet broken into the market (like your son and daughter-in-law, by the sound of it). My brother just bought his first home, and the difficulty he had competing against people throwing their accumulated equity around was maddening--to say nothing of cash offers and investors.

Which I guess leads to the topic of landlords and the effect these housing prices have on the rental market. Landlords have come to believe that their investments are risk-free and that they are entitled to eternal 10%+ annual returns until the sun burns out. I was led to believe that risk-free investments are almost certainly a scam, and I think that's true in this case--though not for the person doing the investing. Cities in particular probably need to create and strengthen mechanisms to wrench some properties loose from investors (often companies or individuals who don't even live in the city) and make them available to people who actually intend to live in them and contribute to the vitality of the community.

[tinnitus photography]

institutional and foreign investors buying up housing stock is also a relatively new phenomenon...

[Zip City]

They have been building houses around me like crazy. Entire developments popping up seemingly overnight with no end in sight.

The problem is that they are all expensive. No one is creating supply for affordable housing. The people stuck in the tent cycle can’t break out because they can’t afford a down payment on a $450k house.

[Mundane Mayhem]

institutional and foreign investors buying up housing stock is also a relatively new phenomenon...

Very true. Vancouver famously had an issue with Chinese investors treating their real estate market like a piggy bank, to the extent that there were companies whose job was to make empty homes appear occupied. They've done some pretty aggressive things to make this less lucrative in recent years (enormous taxes on home sales to foreign entities, for one), but where there's a will, there's likely a way. I don't think there's been a marked decline in home prices in Vancouver, and some speculated that these measures were driven by xenophobic/nativist impulses. This stuff sure is complicated.

[beantownbubba]

I agree w/ essentially all of the above and the frustration of it is even with all those factors cited, it barely scratches the surface of what's wrong w/ the real estate and financial markets, much less the problems that underlie those problems and forget about potential solutions.

That housing is one of the main drivers locking in racial wealth disparities is a key point that I want to re-emphasize, MM.

As you probably know, tin, the Boston condo market (less so single family homes) is driven to a surprising degree by foreign investors.

One thing missing from all the discussions about real estate that I see is recognition that BOTH the government and the private markets have failed the affordable housing market. Every action doesn't just have an equal and opposite reaction, it has multiple opposite reactions. So, for example, rent control, a nice idea in concept that ended up screwing plenty of landlords, gave unintended bonuses to the middle class (I suppose they'd now be upper middle class) and kept too many beneath them on the income scale in substandard housing of all kinds up to and including homelessness.

While not as obvious, our car culture contributes an unfortunate amount to the affordable housing crisis. At least regionally and to a large extent nationally the cost of materials to build a house and the cost of building the house are in the same ballpark. The big wildcard is location. And as long as the cheapest land remains in the far suburbs and exurbs, those areas, and those houses (I bet like the ones near zip) will remain out of reach of way too many people. And mass transit is coming to a suburb near you...no time soon. Infrastructure anyone?

Ha. I intended to write just the first paragraph above. I tend to get carried away, sorry.

[Mundane Mayhem]

I agree w/ essentially all of the above and the frustration of it is even with all those factors cited, it barely scratches the surface of what's wrong w/ the real estate and financial markets, much less the problems that underlie those problems and forget about potential solutions.

That housing is one of the main drivers locking in racial wealth disparities is a key point that I want to re-emphasize, MM.

As you probably know, tin, the Boston condo market (less so single family homes) is driven to a surprising degree by foreign investors.

One thing missing from all the discussions about real estate that I see is recognition that BOTH the government and the private markets have failed the affordable housing market. Every action doesn't just have an equal and opposite reaction, it has multiple opposite reactions. So, for example, rent control, a nice idea in concept that ended up screwing plenty of landlords, gave unintended bonuses to the middle class (I suppose they'd now be upper middle class) and kept too many beneath them on the income scale in substandard housing of all kinds up to and including homelessness.

While not as obvious, our car culture contributes an unfortunate amount to the affordable housing crisis. At least regionally and to a large extent nationally the cost of materials to build a house and the cost of building the house are in the same ballpark. The big wildcard is location. And as long as the cheapest land remains in the far suburbs and exurbs, those areas, and those houses (I bet like the ones near zip) will remain out of reach of way too many people. And mass transit is coming to a suburb near you...no time soon. Infrastructure anyone?

Ha. I intended to write just the first paragraph above. I tend to get carried away, sorry.

I very nearly launched into a diatribe about land use, NIMBYism, the American aversion to density (even among self-styled progressives), and car culture that would have made my long post unforgivably so. Particularly as all that relates to White Flight and the aforementioned racial wealth gap.

[tinnitus photography]

i kinda can't wait to live in a walkable area again, but i will still have to drive to work.

hopefully post-pandemic finds a good split between WFH and going in.

[beantownbubba]

I very nearly launched into a diatribe about land use, NIMBYism, the American aversion to density (even among self-styled progressives), and car culture

*

Had to laugh (not haha) about your well taken reference to NIMBYism. Around here (Boston metro) it is a constant battle which is no different than so many places. What is different is that this is the home, or one of the homes, of liberalism in all its manifestations, and the NIMBY stuff is right out of the worst caricatures of mushy liberals who are all for everything, until it comes to their neighborhood. You'd think folks would be embarrassed, but nope. It's always "I know what you're saying but this project is different ."

Interestingly, the new mayor of my small city has just in her first year pushed through 2 major long stalled mixed use projects including affordable housing and accommodations for mass transit and energy efficiency/solar energy with more in the pipeline. I don't follow local politics in the kind of detail necessary to figure out what she's doing right but if she keeps it up somebody will write a book pretty soon. But, of course, as some friends of mine are quick to point out, "affordable housing" in this city isn't really affordable but I figure that it's better than nothing and it should, at least in theory, have a domino (or is that ripple?) effect on other nearby housing.

[beantownbubba]

Note: I'm intentionally putting this post in the politics, not covid, thread because I think that's the story: politics, not medicine or public health.

Poor Kay Ivey, bless her heart. As Alabama hospitals overflow and death rates rise, Governor Ivey says "golly gee whiz, I just don't understand why people aren't getting vaccinated. People need to use their common sense. Heavens to Betsy, I just don't know what to do about it." ["quote" very approximate]

It is absolutely no surprise that some of the loudest anti vax voices are now urging people to get vaccinated without any kind of acknowledgement that people did not get vaccinated in reliance on statements made by those loud voices like, say, Kay Ivey. It's disgusting. I guess we'll find out over the next few years whether public figures can be held liable for deliberately false and misleading statements that lead to avoidable deaths. My guess is that more than a couple of politicians and talking heads are consulting their lawyers as we speak.

It seems inevitable that this will soon be seen as the matter of life and death that it is. The question is whether voters will remember how it got this way. Ron DeSantis really wants to know since he's basing his presidential aspirations on his handling of covid in FL. Of course FL is now one of a mere 3 states that are responsible for FORTY PERCENT of new cases. Oooops. And an interesting 3 it is: FL, home of the "we're the only ones who got it right" governor, TX home of the incompetent governor casting about desperately for any issue no matter how ill advised and/or unconstitutional to distract the citizens of his state from focusing on his incompetence and MO, home of Josh Hawley, about whom nothing more needs to be said.

[beantownbubba]

In just the past few days the commentary section of the WaPo has been particularly good and interesting over a range of current issues. I don't think there's a big appetite for multiple links here so I haven't posted them, but I think a Post subscription is only 10 bucks/month which seems like a bargain. Of course more of their columnists lean left (but mostly not that far) and a couple of those that lean right are imho useless but they do have Gary Abernathy and George Will who are generally worth reading. And of course the Post is home to the occasional editorial musings of George Conway which are always amusing though not always in a haha way.

[chuckrh]

In just the past few days the commentary section of the WaPo has been particularly good and interesting over a range of current issues. I don't think there's a big appetite for multiple links here so I haven't posted them, but I think a Post subscription is only 10 bucks/month which seems like a bargain. Of course more of their columnists lean left (but mostly not that far) and a couple of those that lean right are imho useless but they do have Gary Abernathy and George Will who are generally worth reading. And of course the Post is home to the occasional editorial musings of George Conway which are always amusing though not always in a haha way.

Remember they are now owned by one Satan's chief minions now.

[beantownbubba]

In just the past few days the commentary section of the WaPo has been particularly good and interesting over a range of current issues. I don't think there's a big appetite for multiple links here so I haven't posted them, but I think a Post subscription is only 10 bucks/month which seems like a bargain. Of course more of their columnists lean left (but mostly not that far) and a couple of those that lean right are imho useless but they do have Gary Abernathy and George Will who are generally worth reading. And of course the Post is home to the occasional editorial musings of George Conway which are always amusing though not always in a haha way.

Remember they are now owned by one Satan's chief minions now.

True, but try as I might, I haven't stopped using amazon yet either. Some day...

FWIW, I haven't noticed his influence anywhere in the paper although I'm not sure I would know it if I did see it. At least report (now a while ago), a reporter/editor there I know said that she was pleased w/ his hands off ownership.